Tín dụng tăng thấp chắc chắn sẽ ảnh hưởng tới kết quả kinh doanh khi hiện nay tín dụng vẫn chiếm tới 70% trong nguồn thu của các ngân hàng.
Tại cuộc họp báo Chính phủ thường kỳ tháng 4/2019 cuối tuần qua, Bộ trưởng, Chủ nhiệm Văn phòng Chính phủ Mai Tiến Dũng cho biết, tính đến ngày 17/4/2019, tăng trưởng tín dụng ở mức 3,23% so với đầu năm.
Như vậy, con số này thấp hơn nhiều so với mức tăng 5% của cùng kỳ 2018 và 2017, đồng thời cũng thấp hơn so với mức tăng bình quân 3,5% cùng kỳ các năm trước đó.
Tín dụng toàn ngành tăng trưởng chậm lại xuất phát từ chính sách siết chặt tín dụng của Ngân hàng Nhà nước khi kế hoạch cho cả năm 2019 chỉ ở mức 14%. Với chính sách này, chỉ tiêu tăng trưởng giao cho các ngân hàng cũng rất thấp, mức cao nhất hiện tại là Vietcombank 15%, còn những ngân hàng thuộc diện tái cơ cấu chỉ được khoảng 7%.
Tín dụng tăng thấp chắc chắn sẽ ảnh hưởng tới kết quả kinh doanh khi hiện nay tín dụng vẫn chiếm tới 70% trong nguồn thu của các ngân hàng. Và thực tế này đã phản ánh ít nhiều ở báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh năm 2018 và quý 1 vừa công bố.
Ngân hàng VietinBank là điển hình nhất từ ảnh hưởng của chính sách này. Quý 4/2018 ngân hàng lỗ trước thuế 853 tỷ đồng do tín dụng sụt giảm hơn 26.000 tỷ đồng khiến cho ngân hàng không có nguồn thu từ lãi. Lợi nhuận cả năm cũng rơi xuống rất thấp và bị loại khỏi top 5.
Sang quý 1 năm nay, tín dụng của VietinBank giảm thêm gần 6.600 tỷ đồng tương đương mức 0,8% so với cuối năm 2018. Dù lợi nhuận quý 1 vẫn tăng mạnh nhờ hoạt động dịch vụ lãi đột biến, bên cạnh các khoản vay cũ được hạch toán, chênh lệch giữa lãi suất cho vay và huy động (NIM) tốt hơn cùng kỳ nên thu nhập từ lãi vẫn tăng tốt, song việc tín dụng khó tăng chắc chắn sẽ khiến nhà băng này phải “đau đầu” ở các tháng còn lại. Cả năm 2019, VietinBank chỉ đặt kế hoạch tăng trưởng tín dụng có 6-7%, bằng một nửa so với các ngân hàng lớn khác.
Tại Eximbank, quý đầu năm nay tín dụng cũng tăng trưởng âm 2,6% với dư nợ rơi xuống dưới 100.000 tỷ đồng, lợi nhuận trước thuế thấp hơn 38% so với cùng kỳ năm trước. Ngân hàng lý giải lợi nhuận tăng nhờ NIM cao hơn, song với xu hướng lãi suất huy động tăng đều đặn từ quý 3 năm ngoái tới nay sẽ khiến cho ngân hàng không thể bình chân tiếp tục chờ NIM mà không thúc đẩy cho vay trong thời gian tới.
Ở các ngân hàng nhỏ, tín dụng tăng yếu quý đầu năm đã phản ánh rõ hơn lên kết quả kinh doanh bởi tỷ trọng thu từ tín dụng còn quá lớn trong khi các mảng phi tín dụng lại không có sức tăng trưởng tốt. Thu nhập lãi thuần ở Saigonbank quý 1 chỉ tăng 0,8%, VietCapital Bank giảm 2,6%, còn NCB thậm chí giảm tới 22,7%. Tăng trưởng dư nợ cho vay khách hàng của 3 ngân hàng này cũng khá thấp, thậm chí là tăng trưởng âm. Kết quả là, lợi nhuận của Saigonbank giảm 39%, VietCapital Bank giảm 75% trong khi Kienlongbank và NCB chỉ ở mức tương đương cùng kỳ.
Tín dụng tăng thấp khiến các ngân hàng phải lo lắng và nhiều lãnh đạo ngân hàng đã thể hiện rõ sự âu lo này, đồng thời chờ đợi sự ưu ái hơn từ cơ quan quản lý. Tại đại hội cổ đông mới đây của Sacombank, ông Dương Công Minh, chủ tịch nhà băng này cho biết NHNN giao chỉ tiêu tăng trưởng 7% nhưng ngân hàng đang xin lên trên 15%. Các ngân hàng đã áp dụng sớm Thông tư 41 về an toàn vốn (trụ cột thứ nhất của Basel II) thì kỳ vọng được giao chỉ tiêu lớn để có bước bứt phá trong cả năm 2019, trong khi những ngân hàng đang cận kề Basel II cũng đang phấn đấu hoàn thiện sớm để được nhận “quà” tăng trưởng tín dụng của Ngân hàng Nhà nước như đã hứa.
Dẫu vậy, theo nhận định của giới phân tích, với chính sách siết chặt tín dụng, đặc biệt là tín dụng vào các lĩnh vực có nhiều rủi ro như bất động sản, thì tín dụng ngân hàng năm nay chắc chắn sẽ khó có đột biến, kéo theo đó là mức tăng trưởng lợi nhuận cũng không thể đạt được như những năm trước, ngoại trừ những nhà băng có các khoản thu nhập bất thường từ dịch vụ hoặc thoái vốn.
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