Như xu hướng tại các nền kinh tế mới nổi, người dân Việt Nam cũng đang vay ngân hàng ngày một nhiều hơn nhưng có những khác biệt.
Như BizLIVE tóm lược một bài viết gần đây của Nikkei , nợ của các hộ gia đình tại nhiều nước mới nổi châu Á tăng nhanh, như tại Trung Quốc, Thái Lan và Malaysia, được cho là “đã trở thành mối hiểm họa với kinh tế toàn cầu”.
Một xu hướng mạnh mẽ
Tại Việt Nam, cho đến nay chưa có một con số thông kê cụ thể nào được công bố về mức độ dư nợ của các hộ gia đình, các cá nhân trong hệ thống ngân hàng theo các chuẩn mực đánh giá để so sánh.
Nhưng, một thực tế cho thấy, các khoản vay của hộ gia đình và khách hàng cá nhân tại các ngân hàng thương mại đã gia tăng rất mạnh những năm gần đây; tỷ trọng này trong cơ cấu tổng dư nợ của nhiều nhà băng đã và đang không ngừng tăng lên.
Tại thời điểm tháng 6/2019, nhiều ngân hàng thương mại chưa có báo cáo tài chính đã kiểm toán, cũng như nhiều thành viên không bóc tách cụ thể dư nợ của các nhóm khách hàng để định hình số liệu thống kê tổng thể.
Nhưng nhìn lùi lại một chút, hoặc tại các trường hợp có phân tách, dư nợ các hộ gia đình và cá nhân đã tăng rất mạnh, tỷ trọng nâng lên cao hẳn những năm gần đây.
Như tại Ngân hàng Ngoại thương Việt Nam (Vietcombank), chiến lược ngân hàng bán lẻ được thúc đẩy, góp phần lý giải cho những kỷ lục lợi nhuận liên tục được lập mới. Cho vay khách hàng cá nhân tại đây đã tăng rất mạnh cả về tốc độ lẫn tỷ trọng.
Cụ thể, nếu năm 2017 dư nợ cho vay cá nhân của Vietcombank ở mức 176.880 tỷ đồng, chiếm tỷ trọng 32,8% tổng dư nợ, thì năm 2018 đã tăng mạnh lên 235.110 tỷ đồng với tỷ trọng tiếp tục nâng lên 37,5%. Tốc độ tăng trưởng dư nợ cá nhân lên tới 33% chỉ qua một năm, cao hơn gấp đôi mức tăng trưởng của tổng dư nợ.
Vietcombank có truyền thống cho vay bán buôn, đã và đang tạo dịch chuyển mạnh mẽ sang cho vay bán lẻ. Trong khi đó, tại nhiều ngân hàng thương mại cổ phần tư nhân, xu hướng này đã thể hiện sớm hơn với tỷ trọng cao hơn hẳn trong cơ cấu.
Từ vài năm trước, thành viên có lợi nhuận cao nhất trong khối ngân hàng tư nhân là Techcombank đã có tỷ trọng cho vay khách hàng cá nhân trên 45% trong tổng dư nợ.
Tại hiện tượng tăng trưởng lợi nhuận là Ngân hàng Tiên Phong (TPBank), tỷ trọng cho vay khách hàng cá nhân đến tháng 6/2019 cũng đã vượt tỷ trọng cho vay doanh nghiệp (46,9% so với 45,9%).
Báo cáo tài chính quý II/2019 của Ngân hàng Sài Gòn – Hà Nội (SHB) cũng cho thấy dư nợ và tỷ trọng cho vay khách hàng cá nhân gia tăng mạnh mẽ; hay tại Ngân hàng Quốc tế (VIB), tỷ trọng cho vay cá nhân và cho vay khác tiếp tục tăng lên tới 75,53% từ mức 73,97% cuối 2018, trong khi tỷ trọng cho vay tổ chức kinh tế chỉ 24,47%…
Khẩu vị rủi ro và cơ chế đã thay đổi
Trở lại với bài báo của Nikkei, nợ của các hộ gia đình và cá nhân tăng cao được nhìn nhận ở góc độ “đã trở thành mối hiểm họa với kinh tế toàn cầu”. “Mối hiểm họa” được diễn giải ở tỷ lệ đòn bẩy cùng chi phí vay nợ trong nền kinh tế, và đặc biệt là gánh nặng nợ nần có thể tác động tiêu cực, làm giảm sức cầu khi người “gánh nợ” thắt chặt chi tiêu…
Còn Việt Nam thì sao?
Trước hết, xu hướng gia tăng mạnh mẽ cho vay hộ gia đình và cá nhân nói trên phản ánh khẩu vị rủi ro của các ngân hàng thương mại đã thay đổi lớn so với giai đoạn trước.
Xu hướng chung, các nhà băng dịch chuyển sang tín dụng bán lẻ, cho vay khách hàng cá nhân với một thị trường có tới hơn 95 triệu dân mà mỗi năm ước tính có khoảng 1 triệu cặp vợ chồng mới cưới; mà qua đó nhu cầu nhà ở, mua sắm ô tô lớn.
Phân khúc này thường có lãi suất cho vay cao hơn khoảng 2-3%/năm so với cho vay doanh nghiệp, tạo lãi biên và lợi nhuận tốt hơn. Nguồn vốn được rải ra theo các món vay cá nhân nhỏ lẻ cũng được xem là chiến lược bỏ trứng ra nhiều giỏ, phân tán rủi ro thay vì dồn nguồn cho những khoản vay lớn tập trung số ít khách hàng doanh nghiệp như trước đây.
Theo tìm hiểu của BizLIVE tại Vietcombank, Techcombank, TPBank…, tỷ lệ nợ xấu cho vay khách hàng cá nhân của họ thời gian qua và hiện nay rất thấp, dưới 1%.
Nói là thời gian qua, nhưng thực tế cho vay các hộ gia đình và cá nhân tại Việt Nam mới chỉ thực sự phát triển khoảng 4-5 năm trở lại đây. Điểm khác biệt này cũng góp phần lý giải vì sao có xu hướng gia tăng mạnh mẽ nói trên, do mẫu số tham chiếu trước đó nhỏ hoặc thấp.
Năm 2008, tại hội nghị giữa kỳ của Diễn đàn Doanh nghiệp Việt Nam, trưởng nhóm công tác ngân hàng từng nhấn mạnh đến một ý: cơ chế trần lãi suất cho vay đã bóp nghẹt hoạt động cho vay tiêu dùng vốn còn non trẻ tại Việt Nam. Đây là mẫu chốt.
Cụ thể, giai đoạn trước, trần lãi suất cho vay bị khống chế và điều luật liên quan đến lãi suất cơ bản để xác định “cho vay nặng lãi” đã khiến tín dụng cá nhân bế tắc.
Những năm gần đây, “lãi suất cơ bản” đã không còn trong các công bố tại Việt Nam; trần lãi suất liên quan cũng được gỡ bỏ. Nói cách khác, cơ chế đã thay đổi hoàn toàn để mở ra không gian cho tín dụng cá nhân.
Một điểm cơ bản tiếp theo, sau giai đoạn bị bóp nghẹt bởi lãi suất cho vay từng lên tới 21-25%/năm quãng 2010 – 2012, phải 4-5 năm gần đây lãi suất cho vay mới thực sự được bình ổn ở mức thấp, giảm còn phần nửa với khoảng 9-12%/năm.
Yếu tố chi phí này cũng có tính quyết định đến xu hướng gia tăng tín dụng các hộ gia đình và cá nhân nói trên.
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